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Free tool — no account

Risk of ruin calculator

The modelled chance of losing down to a stated floor.

Works without an account Formula printed with the answer Assumptions listed No live price hardcoded

Read this before you calculate

A model estimate, not a prediction. It assumes a fixed edge, a fixed risk per trade and trades that do not influence each other — none of which is true of a live account. Its value is in comparing one risk plan with another, not in believing the number.

From your own recorded results. A rate you have not measured is a guess, and the model will present the guess as if it were data. Unit: %.

Enter 2 for a 1:2 plan.

Unit: %.

How much of the bankroll has to be gone before the model calls it ruin. 50% is the common choice; a live account is usually stopped out long before that. Unit: %.

Nothing is stored or emailed. The maths runs on the figures you typed.

Risk of ruin calculator — questions

Is this the real probability I blow up?

No. It is a modelled estimate under simplifying assumptions, and it is labelled as one. Real trading has clustering, regime change and human behaviour in it.

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